[00:00:00] Good to be back as usual. I want to talk about a bunch of different stuff today.
[00:00:04] Kind of a mixer of things. Haven't been on in a while. I think it's been a couple
[00:00:09] months. Sometimes I don't even know if it's been two weeks or two months, but I
[00:00:12] like it that way because I have no obligation then to come on and say
[00:00:15] something unless I have something to say which works much better. I was just
[00:00:20] thinking about kind of the AI stuff that's going on and how I really enjoy
[00:00:25] the whole thing because just since I was little I loved sniffing into new trends
[00:00:30] new things. A lot of times it lines up with my trading. Sometimes it doesn't.
[00:00:35] I've been into sports cards a few times since I was a kid and then before
[00:00:39] the pandemic I got into it and then crypto and I don't know the tech
[00:00:45] boom in the 1999 2000 I was always on message boards looking at companies
[00:00:50] digging into that. And then now this AI stuff is like a super bowl of all that
[00:00:55] because I just loved all that there's so many tools to use the speed up
[00:00:59] workflow and research and I can learn so much stuff so fast now and if
[00:01:04] something's technical or over my head I quickly figure out which parts I don't
[00:01:08] understand and I can learn them or I can figure out where to learn them. All
[00:01:11] the things I didn't have like coding and I don't know web development
[00:01:16] whatever I don't really use web development but you know what I mean
[00:01:19] all that stuff is available now quickly so for someone like me who's into the
[00:01:25] markets and kind of an opportunist it's the tools are awesome and I know for
[00:01:30] others who have jobs that are being wiped out it's not as awesome but I
[00:01:34] have a friend who has a business that he said it was like a 30 million dollar
[00:01:39] business not that long ago and he's like it's really quickly trending
[00:01:44] towards zero and he's has to basically just fire a bunch of people on his
[00:01:48] staff and quickly start over and he has a good attitude about it because he's
[00:01:53] just like you know this is I can see this coming so I got to quickly move and
[00:01:57] you know I think that that's how we have to all look at like I'm not in that
[00:02:01] position right now but with trading and I've been trading since I don't know
[00:02:05] 20 some years and this has happened to me multiple times where what I'm doing
[00:02:10] just doesn't it doesn't work anymore but usually with trading it doesn't
[00:02:14] work and then it comes back and then it goes away and then it comes back
[00:02:17] and it's kind of like a slow bleed and one of the slow bleeds has definitely
[00:02:21] been reading order flow and even news and event trading which is something that I
[00:02:27] have done a lot of and really thrived on in the past has I mean the Federal
[00:02:32] Reserve days are still pretty good for me there's a lot of correlations
[00:02:36] between markets and things fundamentals I can use but a lot of the other
[00:02:40] stuff that the way the market moves now it doesn't really like it's
[00:02:43] probably still doing that in the big picture and I've talked about this
[00:02:46] at length in the past so I won't get into it too much but the way it does it is
[00:02:50] different now so a lot of those things I used to do that didn't really work as
[00:02:54] well so it's like what would you do and I think for me and I'm talking to
[00:03:00] whoever else is listening about how they feel for them but one of my skills
[00:03:04] has always been just a genuine desire and interest in where the world is
[00:03:09] going technology trends I love shortcuts and things and I don't mean
[00:03:13] shortcuts like don't work hard don't learn but like doing things faster and
[00:03:18] more efficiently and I just enjoy it I geek out on it I like the gadgets and
[00:03:22] some people hate it but I like it and there's other things that you know
[00:03:27] it everybody's different but what they say I stuff it's kind of getting me to
[00:03:32] think through the whole supply chain of alright what do we need for this
[00:03:36] stuff to keep going you know there's data centers and there's power
[00:03:39] grids and there's things that need to change there's deep fake software that
[00:03:43] needs to advance there's so many things going on and a lot of it'll take five
[00:03:48] to ten years to play out and so I'm thinking about trading it's like okay
[00:03:53] where does trading fit into that like what's gonna happen next with trading
[00:03:55] and and it seems like I've already been moving down this direction of news
[00:03:59] disseminated really quickly things moving so fast that unless it's a
[00:04:04] complete shock and you're sitting in front of a real-time news service
[00:04:07] it's not gonna matter it doesn't that game doesn't work anymore so you're
[00:04:12] paid more now to I think to trade in a more structured way where you have rules
[00:04:18] because if you have a rule and more systematic approach you can move your
[00:04:22] size up and you can study why things aren't working and kind of look at a
[00:04:25] little bit more robotically even though there's maybe a discretionary flare
[00:04:29] that's kind of the direction I'm moving with my trading but well not but
[00:04:34] but also I'm looking at kind of automating the whole thing where I'm
[00:04:39] gonna have it put on trades for me and do a little bit less manual sitting in
[00:04:42] front of my screen as I used to open myself up for more activities like
[00:04:47] studying where the world is going and how there are stock trades that line up
[00:04:50] with that and a lot of this stuff goes back to like cycle analysis which I've
[00:04:55] always really enjoyed like sentiment and frequency of comments relative to a
[00:05:00] baseline so you know people are talking about certain groups of
[00:05:04] stocks maybe five ten times more than they usually do or when there's a big
[00:05:09] down move people are really excited all the way down because they want to buy it
[00:05:12] because it was you know like electric charging on the way down or oil when it
[00:05:16] went negative a couple years ago and all of a sudden after a certain point of
[00:05:20] going down there's just no more talk about it there's no more comments and
[00:05:24] I think that's really interesting because it means that everyone's probably
[00:05:27] capitulated and they're done now I want to track those kind of things I
[00:05:30] want to use the technology to look at areas where I think it's interesting and
[00:05:35] can I kind of figure out how to use these tools to kind of use all the things
[00:05:40] that I've learned but had the tools helped me figure out when and a lot of
[00:05:44] it is like it's gonna go from A to B it's a a and then B and doesn't
[00:05:49] necessarily make sense why it moved at that time but you could kind of see
[00:05:52] that it should move and that I think some of the analysis I was just
[00:05:57] talking about fits well with that so right now crypto is going off and I know
[00:06:01] that people are talking about shitcoins and nonsense on Twitter and I can see I
[00:06:05] have a few people texting me about stuff that's going on so I kind of keep in
[00:06:11] the loop and I've gone through a few of these cycles and tech stocks and
[00:06:15] crypto and all that stuff so you can kind of see kind of where we are in
[00:06:19] the cycle and usually goes further than you think and then all of a sudden
[00:06:22] you know everyone sat for a while and then it gets really boring no one
[00:06:27] cares and the chart gets really tight and narrow for a while for a long time and
[00:06:33] the boredom gets really high then people actually start building again
[00:06:35] and then you know surprise we go back up and I think I think studying those
[00:06:40] things and not falling asleep at those moments are really valuable tools to
[00:06:45] have kind of going forward and one thing that's hard though is if you
[00:06:49] get hurt in it especially at all you really just it's toxic to you and
[00:06:53] you're allergic to it you don't want to look at it and you fall asleep when
[00:06:55] you need to be awake so I just kind of keep alerts on my phone remind me in
[00:07:01] six months to look at this remind me in three months and I'm tracking areas
[00:07:04] where I know like I know of some friends that are trying to pick bottoms
[00:07:07] and lithium right now so I'm like okay you know I get it lithium but
[00:07:11] it's I look at the charts and I'm like alright people are trying to
[00:07:16] pick bottoms there's a lot of activity there's people talking about it
[00:07:18] it's not really a sexy area the market that it used to be so I just kind of had
[00:07:22] that on my radar as something to watch and I'm watching the general comment
[00:07:25] flow I'm watching the stocks not going to do anything right now but if
[00:07:28] anything maybe I'd be short but I'm just not doing anything and I'm
[00:07:32] waiting and watching because EVs will eventually have another wave when
[00:07:35] everyone's bored of them and they work off all the you know the oversupply
[00:07:40] and things like that but it's not even that it's just that I want to think
[00:07:44] that way more and more about a bunch of different things have five or ten of
[00:07:47] those things in the hopper watch the charts keep an eye on the sentiment
[00:07:50] sometimes knowing less is better like having an idea of positioning and
[00:07:55] sentiment in charts and analyzing the flow of the world where things are going
[00:08:00] can be more valuable than oh I know every little thing about this company
[00:08:03] because someone's always gonna know more than you and I have a like a
[00:08:08] professional manager a guy that I know who runs a little bit of my money
[00:08:12] for tech stocks and he's really good he's like 30 year career like three or four
[00:08:17] percent above the NASDAQ which is really good and his schedule is like get up at
[00:08:22] 4 a.m. watch all the interviews the CEOs tracks all the investment conferences
[00:08:26] really understands the fundamentals understands where the world's going
[00:08:29] the reading every blog and like just ingesting it non-stop you know what I
[00:08:34] mean everything is about it so how the hell do I think I'm gonna be better
[00:08:38] than that person at that I'm not there's no way right so that's why I outsourced
[00:08:43] it and people are like well you're a trader why would you give someone else
[00:08:46] money it's like well because my kind of trading isn't necessarily that kind of
[00:08:50] trading when looking five years had something but I want to be I want to be
[00:08:53] involved five years from now but I can't hold in video from 50 to 900
[00:08:59] because I'm gonna get out I'm gonna think it's overdone I'm gonna get out
[00:09:02] at 500 it's gonna go to 900 and I'm gonna think feel like an idiot and
[00:09:06] because it's just I have too much conditioning to be a little more in and
[00:09:11] out quicker than that even if I you know even if I think I'm longer term I'm
[00:09:15] at that long that kind of long-term so I think now this time I'm all over the
[00:09:22] place but this is probably gonna be like that today you gotta like understand
[00:09:25] yourself and know that where are you good where do you want to be good and
[00:09:30] where your blind spots that you can outsource something have someone else
[00:09:33] help you or not try to do everything yourself so I'm working on a short-term
[00:09:37] future system right now because I can put a lot of work into that enjoy that and
[00:09:41] I can automate it eventually I like testing it I can using the AI tools to
[00:09:48] help me program some stuff and try some ideas out that I couldn't do before so
[00:09:52] that's kind of my project right now and then we'll see how that goes if it
[00:09:55] goes well I trade bigger I have more things that are similar and we kind of
[00:09:59] see how it happens in the meantime I'm just pouring over these tools every day
[00:10:02] I get AI newsletters from all over the place I'm trying out things ordering
[00:10:07] gadgets and making my head just just screwing around with stuff to see what's
[00:10:12] next what's gonna change and if I'm if my hands are on it I was on the
[00:10:16] original iPhone right away and I was on Amazon in 1998 buying books and all
[00:10:21] that stuff just because I like it it's cool cuz it's new I want to see is
[00:10:26] it easy how people are gonna do it I'm not the first person but maybe I'm the
[00:10:30] first 10 or 15% and that makes a big deal because the market always moves a
[00:10:33] little later than that it starts moving early but and then you kind of get an
[00:10:37] idea of where to look and then then your trading skills can kind of blend in
[00:10:41] this is not going to be everybody's approach this is like a personal
[00:10:44] personal thing for me so sometimes I might be trading you know in the
[00:10:48] shorter term and then I get one or two or three of these a year that
[00:10:52] show up if that maybe one year I get six and one year it gets zero ideas and
[00:10:56] now trades like around an idea because I've been experimenting in my life and
[00:11:00] I feel like something adds up I get something I see a shift happening
[00:11:03] because I'm curious and I like it and I have some trading skills and it comes
[00:11:07] together so it's a weird way of like weaving my life together into my
[00:11:10] trading so like today I was researching excuse me a allergy season
[00:11:16] today I was researching somehow I look at global like money transfer
[00:11:21] remittance businesses and the trend is going up after it collapsed after
[00:11:25] covid so I was looking at crypto coins that are the same way that do that and
[00:11:30] that's just C Lo or sell or reset C Lo came up so I started to get into that
[00:11:35] for a while and I played with it on my phone a little bit and I didn't do
[00:11:39] anything with it but so I have a bunch of notes and I have a dune dashboard
[00:11:42] up and I kind of watch it and I watch helium as well the mobile one
[00:11:46] and I have helium mobile subscription I'm always just toying and playing and
[00:11:50] looking and watching the charts and kind of surveying on Reddit Google trends
[00:11:57] on there's another cool one called exploding topics dot com super cool site
[00:12:02] for trends so I said paid I use the paid version of it anyone by the way
[00:12:07] email me if you have anything like this that you use that's cool or you
[00:12:10] built anything I'd love to I'm just interested in it so if anyone has
[00:12:14] that you can send me an email you can get off the podcast website if
[00:12:19] you don't know it but back to the topic is just I think that using those
[00:12:24] tools that way to augment what you already are interested in because you
[00:12:27] should be kind of excited about what you're doing you want to have it be
[00:12:30] fun if it's just drudgery or your board I've had it for a long time where I
[00:12:34] just pushed and pushed on what I was doing because you know this is what I
[00:12:38] need to do to make money and this is why what I have learned and it's
[00:12:42] just my biggest upwaves have been when I'm just enjoying what I'm doing
[00:12:47] and all of a sudden usually many months later it's not a year later you know I'm
[00:12:51] in something the time just kind of disappears around me I'm in the flow
[00:12:54] of the zone I'm just totally in the moment and you know this is one of those
[00:12:59] times where if we look at this you know various different groups of people
[00:13:03] are getting hurt by this and some people are thriving but if you look
[00:13:06] at it it's hard to not unless you're just hiding somewhere you're not
[00:13:09] using any of these tools it's pretty hard to not look at this and see a
[00:13:14] really big moment I mean I know it's happened for the last year or so and
[00:13:18] probably been going on a lot longer but this is a huge moment for how things
[00:13:22] are gonna get are gonna be done and how work is gonna change and the global
[00:13:25] economy will eventually change with with these tools so as people in the
[00:13:30] markets I mean we have a great opportunity to just jump on stuff
[00:13:35] watch stuff learn stuff and I think it's a really cool time it's everything
[00:13:40] is available and there's more opportunities than ever if you miss
[00:13:43] something there's always something else coming that's really cool because in the
[00:13:46] past when I first started it moved a lot slower and you just had to wait like
[00:13:49] years sometimes to find things that are seemingly happening every I don't know
[00:13:54] every six months now three months so maybe not that soon but it's there's
[00:14:00] a lot of stuff going on so I think just not getting down when something
[00:14:05] doesn't play out right away and knowing that when it does when you put a lot
[00:14:09] of work in it doesn't work out it usually means there's something else better
[00:14:13] for you that's coming and then you look back later and you're like oh I see I'm
[00:14:17] glad it didn't work out because I actually built a lot of cool skills doing
[00:14:19] that but now I use it for this which is really what ended up working out but I
[00:14:24] didn't expect it just the best analogy for that I'm gonna walk right now I'm
[00:14:29] breathing heavy the best analogy for that is just the surfing one I love
[00:14:34] because you go out there it's like okay I want to surf I'm gonna go out
[00:14:39] here there's waves coming but I want to surf right now like it's Tuesday and I
[00:14:44] have time off and you deserve today so you go out there and you force surfing
[00:14:47] and it sucks in your board maybe you get hurt even you do something stupid
[00:14:50] whatever it's just not happening right and then there's the other surfer who
[00:14:55] is going out there every day or whenever they need to at the time where
[00:14:58] there might be waves 9 to noon whatever and if there's waves you
[00:15:03] calmly hop on a wave and you let the wave take you for a ride and it
[00:15:07] looks easy at effortless to everybody else but you all you're doing is riding
[00:15:10] the wave you don't even know what was gonna come you just waited and you rode
[00:15:13] the wave that's really all we're doing I don't care what our strategy is that's
[00:15:16] what we're doing we're riding the wave either you're riding a short-term wave
[00:15:19] you figure something out you're piggybacking somebody or you're
[00:15:23] or you're doing like this thematic type trend stuff or I don't know
[00:15:27] whatever you're doing it's you're riding some kind of a wave from a bigger
[00:15:31] player and when you try to be the wave and make the wave and it's trouble
[00:15:36] because you can't decide that you have to you have to play with the bigger flow
[00:15:41] and not try to be it or force it and that's been I'm sure we've all had tough
[00:15:45] lessons on that but that's kind of how I'm trying to look at it all when I get
[00:15:50] really excited and there's a setback or something so that's kind of what's
[00:15:54] been going on with me lately is just immersing myself in join and kind of
[00:15:58] building and experimenting right now and usually good something good comes
[00:16:03] out of that and a lot of times with trading it's not linear it's like there's
[00:16:07] years where I've been methodically you know making money all year and had a good
[00:16:10] year yeah then the old days especially but a lot of times now it's like nothing
[00:16:15] nothing nothing and then boom and then there's a run and then there's just
[00:16:17] quiet for a while and you try not to give a bunch of it back and it's just
[00:16:21] and you got to just you got to go with that but you might catch a really
[00:16:25] big run where even for a year or two you're really into something and then
[00:16:29] it changes again when you move on but you keep adapting and changing and
[00:16:32] you get super strong at being okay with having to scrap and start over it's like
[00:16:38] that saying like really strong opinions lately held and that's a great saying
[00:16:43] because you know you remember a guy I traded with who was really successful and
[00:16:48] he always some never see that was full package on like buying the high of the
[00:16:51] day in the futures and then all sudden he'd flip and be short full-size
[00:16:54] and have a great day and it would go down like a lot from there and it
[00:16:58] was like I really thought I was gonna go up and then I realized it wasn't so
[00:17:02] it was the other way and hard to even explain to somebody who's sitting next to
[00:17:05] you right but he was you know he was able to do that and I think that's a not
[00:17:10] that we should be flip-flopping in our trades but you get the point anyways
[00:17:14] that's kind of where I'm at right now and in terms of the podcast going
[00:17:18] forward I Spotify bought anchor which was all anchor was awesome and that's
[00:17:24] how I'm able to do this on my phone on my walks and stuff because it's a
[00:17:26] pain in the ass for me to sit down with a microphone and submit the
[00:17:28] audio recording it's just kind of like lightweight and easy for me to do this
[00:17:32] so for some reason Spotify has taken away that feature I don't know why but so I
[00:17:37] have to find a different way to put it out it should still be on the same
[00:17:40] platforms so I think it might be a good chance for me to still figure that
[00:17:45] out so I can still do the podcast like normal when I do it however often I
[00:17:49] want to do it but also since since my flow is changing a little bit with
[00:17:54] kind of how I described you on this podcast I might do like a monthly or
[00:17:58] maybe quarterly like a web newsletter type thing where I just have like hey
[00:18:04] here's what I've been looking at you know just these are some cool tools I've
[00:18:07] been using this is some themes or trends I've been looking at or some ideas it's
[00:18:12] not going to be like buy this and sell that it's just gonna be like this is
[00:18:15] where I'm digging maybe you're interested in sniffing around maybe
[00:18:18] you're not maybe we can talk about something email back and forth I don't
[00:18:22] know it's just good to collaborate with people who are interested in
[00:18:25] similar things so maybe I'll do that get around to that at some point here and
[00:18:31] send get like an email list on my site so people can put the email in and then
[00:18:36] when that comes out I can do a podcast as well and then you can just get that
[00:18:40] little link and go to the web page and read it or downloaded or whatever I
[00:18:43] decide to do so I'm kicking that around right now I gotta start doing a
[00:18:47] better job keeping track of the things I'm looking at each day and kind of
[00:18:50] putting together I think it'd be good for me to organize myself and
[00:18:53] have a little just accountability about like what the hell you've been doing the
[00:18:57] last two months and sometimes I just do stuff and I forget like I looked at that
[00:19:02] last week and I forgot all about it already and ends up being important
[00:19:04] that's another point is in this day and age with super fast information
[00:19:08] there's good information that comes across there's a move in the market
[00:19:11] it's actually good information sometimes but it doesn't matter until
[00:19:16] like the lag effect two months later three months that everyone forgets
[00:19:19] about it and there's like the big move that actually comes so it's just
[00:19:22] remembering like this is important I want to look at this stuff but maybe not
[00:19:26] the time to jump right away to dig more and I mean some things are quick
[00:19:30] hitters right you just do it and you get out and some things are everything's
[00:19:34] different some things are more like slow grind or a bubbling up like when
[00:19:37] crypto was dead forever you could have bought some of that stuff down there
[00:19:40] just in tight weekly ranges and just kind of camped on it and thought well
[00:19:44] if I'm wrong it's not gonna hurt too bad it already went down 95% right
[00:19:48] and if I'm right it's just a matter of not going to sleep basically which is
[00:19:53] hard for 2022 everyone went to sleep because you're just thinking this is
[00:19:57] everyone's negative it's a disaster and then all the reasons why and then of
[00:20:01] course we have this massive rally and market makes people feel stupid just
[00:20:05] repeatedly I went to a guy's birthday party with some really smart people
[00:20:10] at pretty much right when the market was coming out of the hole in 2022
[00:20:14] everyone there except for one guy was just these are the people who were very
[00:20:19] successful in their jobs weren't necessarily traders not that it would
[00:20:22] have mattered anyway I mean but just negative about everything get out of
[00:20:26] your stuff you know tough 10 years of asset prices for the US investor the
[00:20:32] all this stuff you know all the and I said to one guy I was like well the
[00:20:35] only problem is an eight or ten year old could identify all the negative
[00:20:40] reasons why things are down here because it's so it's so deeply
[00:20:44] embedded into the media and everyone's mind right now that it has to be in the
[00:20:48] market doesn't mean I knew that I was gonna scream up so much but and at that
[00:20:53] point also everybody was in 5% treasuries which made sense because no one had
[00:20:56] gotten interested so long so you know of course when everyone does the same
[00:21:01] trade it's not the best trade usually it's just like another lesson
[00:21:04] to remember how things bottom and how things might bottom and I just find
[00:21:08] it all interesting I would love to see a like a some kind of a cool AI tool that
[00:21:14] had all the old newspaper headlines from I think for bull and bear markets like
[00:21:20] big crashes and then when they turned around and then big bull markets that
[00:21:23] kind of happened we just seeing all the major media headlines associated with
[00:21:27] the chart over like the last 200 years in the US or whatever in the US
[00:21:31] and just digging through and being able to pin like all that stuff to a
[00:21:36] chart and see how long it took and how negative was it because I mean I remember
[00:21:40] a lot of the last few we've had a lot of them in the last like 10 or 15 years so
[00:21:43] it's interesting to kind of see that play out again and again but anyways
[00:21:48] that's it for today