What works and what doesn’t
TradingLife Podcast with Brad JelinekJanuary 01, 202500:23:5922.21 MB

What works and what doesn’t

It’s all in the title

[00:00:01] Just going through the new year, happy new year everybody, going through the new year and I like to make a list of what works and what doesn't work or what has been working and what has not been working. And I think that that's just the simplest thing you can do and it changes over time. I got this from someone in one of those market wizard books just talked about making that simple list. Do more of what works and less of what doesn't.

[00:00:23] And that's the kind of simplicity that I think we need to sometimes clear up stuff because you go down a rabbit hole and you make things too difficult. When you're struggling, you start to not even know how you got there. Or if you lose yourself emotionally in, I don't know, when you get triggered emotionally and all of a sudden you're arguing with somebody, a spouse or whatever, and then you don't even understand how you got there. And all of a sudden it's like, what's the problem actually here? I don't even remember.

[00:00:49] Because you start going down an unconscious loop. And the same thing can happen with your trading. So I sent this to Brent. I'm just going to read some of it to you guys. Some of it won't be relevant, but I'll read the stuff that is, I think.

[00:01:02] Okay, so what works? What's been working? Buying or selling big retests, often on sneaky days when they're quick and everyone is scared. So that's been very useful. That often is useful. And the retests are nice because if you think about a big move down or up and then a retest,

[00:01:18] either a small new lower high or a failed quickly after when everyone's in that panic or that euphoric state are often great trades.

[00:01:26] Because if you're wrong, the risk is very low. It's usually through that low or a little bit past that low. And if you're right, you have like a huge wave back up.

[00:01:34] And people are unwilling usually to take that shot because it feels scary. So, excuse me, that works. Stupid news. Stupid news works. It always has worked.

[00:01:42] I don't know with this world we're going into with AI and eventually the quantum stuff, which will be a ways away.

[00:01:48] But, I mean, we're still dealing with this open world strategy type stuff that is effective because the machines aren't really good at that yet.

[00:01:56] And I had a few good stupid news trades this year. I had two Google ones. I had one in Google when they were late to the game,

[00:02:04] when OpenAI came first, the very beginning of the year. And it was like down in the 90s or something.

[00:02:09] And it was 50% off its highs. And that was a good one, I thought, because of course Google's going to get into it.

[00:02:14] They just didn't. They weren't their first one. So, excuse me. So that was one.

[00:02:20] And the second one was it pulled back to like, I don't know, 130 or 140 into the 200-day moving average on woke responses from Gemini.

[00:02:32] Which, you know, who cares? They'll fix it. They'll stop doing those responses.

[00:02:36] And they, and I don't know if they still have that stuff, but it's just stupid news. It doesn't matter.

[00:02:39] So I was able to buy that at the 200-day and I'm like, okay, well, this is a good technical area.

[00:02:45] And it's off the highs by quite a bit. And I took a nice ride on both of those for like, I don't know,

[00:02:50] the first one I think I took like 25 points and the second one like 20, maybe 20 points.

[00:02:53] And they went a lot further. So I need to analyze, you know, taking them further.

[00:02:59] But they worked. And another one was Duolingo, which I missed.

[00:03:02] And they had a competitive software come out and it just blasted them down.

[00:03:06] And I don't know the dates on that. And that one I missed. And that was a good one though.

[00:03:10] And the third, the fourth one I saw was United Healthcare.

[00:03:12] It had gone down hard on its own. And then when the guy got shot, the CEO, it went down some more.

[00:03:18] Excuse me. More cough. I'm getting over here.

[00:03:20] And then it, so it set this double bottom and had this key technical round number at 500.

[00:03:26] And it ripped back up to 560 when they found the shooter in McDonald's.

[00:03:30] And then it rolled over and blasted all the way down to like the mid 400s.

[00:03:33] I love that short in that 560 to 520 area to take out the double bottom and the 500 round number.

[00:03:40] Because the market decided on the trend. That's the theory of stupid news.

[00:03:44] Like the market makes a decision and then something happens that makes no sense

[00:03:48] versus the decision the market has made. And then you're basically betting against the stupid news

[00:03:53] for the real trend that was already started to continue. And it's usually a violent continuation.

[00:03:58] And, you know, you got to study and watch them to figure out like how do I exactly get in?

[00:04:01] And I've learned to like get in a little bit a couple days in a row and don't go too big right away.

[00:04:05] Maybe I add to it. And that's how I play those.

[00:04:08] I actually was getting beat up or psychologically just not trusting myself.

[00:04:13] And I watched that UNH one and didn't do it.

[00:04:15] I was pretty pissed off after because I didn't do it.

[00:04:18] But then I quickly got, I fixed being upset because I was like, well, why are you upset?

[00:04:24] You're upset because you were rushing and doing things that put you in a spot to dwindle your psychological capital.

[00:04:31] In which case you missed out on a trade.

[00:04:34] So the psychological capital is very important because it's not just losing money.

[00:04:39] It's if you psychologically beat yourself up, you start to doubt yourself and then you pass on trades that you like.

[00:04:43] So, I mean, a lot of my trades, like the stupid news trades, I might only have four or five of those a year in the stock market.

[00:04:50] And in the futures, maybe I get some in the futures too.

[00:04:53] But it's just one strategy, like one income stream that I use.

[00:04:56] It's not like I'm having those every day.

[00:04:58] They could, if it's busy, maybe I get a few of them in a week.

[00:05:01] But usually, I mean, they're just, they come when they come.

[00:05:03] You know, I don't always catch them.

[00:05:04] And I don't always see them all because you can't watch everything.

[00:05:07] But if you're kind of aware of certain stories, you'll notice that like, wow, this has been trending and they just shook everybody out in a really stupid reason.

[00:05:14] And then if you find, you can use your trading skills to find out when the bar is narrow and it takes out some key stops or moving averages.

[00:05:21] And you start to enter your position where you think your risk is low, where everyone's puked.

[00:05:25] And then you got your trade.

[00:05:28] So that's stupid news.

[00:05:31] Talk more about that when it comes up.

[00:05:33] But that's something that I really have always liked.

[00:05:37] Focusing more on Fed days, especially, and on CPI days and the days after both of those days.

[00:05:44] If I'm going to trade future options during the day, those are the days where my style works better because there's large moves and there's a lot of emotion and there's a lot of just volatility.

[00:05:53] So only trading those days can be really good for me because it keeps me out of a lot of trouble.

[00:05:59] Excuse me.

[00:06:02] And that's always been the case, by the way.

[00:06:04] It's just reflecting on the year.

[00:06:06] It just continues to be the case.

[00:06:07] Less trading and more precision and more watching and more sitting back and letting the trades come to you.

[00:06:14] So, you know, the futures options stuff during the day is a different strategy than the stupid news, which is different strategy than a lot of these swing trades and position trades I'm doing in stocks now.

[00:06:23] Those are probably the most frequent trades I'm doing.

[00:06:27] And I haven't talked at length about how I'm doing that, but those are the most frequent trades I'm doing.

[00:06:31] But I've built a few different ways to do it.

[00:06:35] So being around for a while, I have a few different strategies and I wait for which one shows up and I can kind of be patient.

[00:06:41] And the less I do, the better I do.

[00:06:43] And I think there's been over trading by me in all the strategies.

[00:06:46] Like I had a decent year, nothing great, but I think it could have been a lot better if I would have been more patient.

[00:06:53] Because I had a couple times where I got myself in trouble by over trading and I missed the big one.

[00:06:57] I did that like three or four times, especially in the fourth quarter.

[00:07:02] Excuse me.

[00:07:04] Figuring out sentiment and market positioning in a few big moments each year.

[00:07:09] So that's always big for how I think about things.

[00:07:12] The key example I give to you would be we had the Donald Trump stuff.

[00:07:18] Like even before the debate, it was kind of thought that he was going to win.

[00:07:23] And everyone got stuck buying ahead of time.

[00:07:25] And there was a huge flush out.

[00:07:27] And then we eventually had a subsequent rally later.

[00:07:29] But I could feel that everyone had gotten long.

[00:07:33] And then when that Kamala Harris debate happened, it was perceived that he lost whatever.

[00:07:40] It was perceived that way by the market.

[00:07:41] And it created this big move down.

[00:07:43] And then eventually it moved back up.

[00:07:44] But that's prime trading for me on both sides.

[00:07:47] Because I know people are stuck because they bought.

[00:07:49] And they're going to overreact to the Harris thing is another great piece of stupid news.

[00:07:54] Because on that specific day, which I think was like actually 9-11 in February.

[00:07:58] You were, pull up your charts to 9-11 to 2024.

[00:08:03] And you'll see if you pull up, excuse me, a daily S&P, SPX cash chart.

[00:08:10] Pull up the 50-day moving average.

[00:08:11] You'll see we cratered the morning.

[00:08:12] We held it and we cratered.

[00:08:13] If you pull up like a 30-minute chart and see where that level is.

[00:08:17] We went down.

[00:08:18] And on the Kamala Harris is going to, oh crap, you know, the Democrats are going to win.

[00:08:22] And then later on that same day, we were already in a retracement.

[00:08:25] We had like a huge ripper, like one of those massive afternoons back up.

[00:08:29] And that was a big, one of my biggest days of the year.

[00:08:32] Because I knew that everyone, the moving average held again, the 50-day cash, which a lot of people watch.

[00:08:37] And I knew it was really stupid news that they were going to think that because of that one debate that the whole election was going to be different.

[00:08:43] It may or may not be, but it's probably pretty stupid, especially when we're deep into a pullback already.

[00:08:50] And then especially when we hold that 50-day in the morning, everyone feels really comfortable.

[00:08:54] And I could see as we started walking back up that we were going to blow that 50-day out the same day.

[00:08:58] And then it was going to create a huge stop move and options move.

[00:09:01] So that was another way of like kind of putting together all the positioning.

[00:09:04] And that's, ideally, that's my best stuff is thinking like that.

[00:09:08] In some years, you have so much of that kind of stuff.

[00:09:10] In some years, like this year, you don't have a lot of it.

[00:09:13] So I've learned to develop other things too because it's great that you have that, but you can't be –

[00:09:20] it's tough when you're only feasting on things that happen 10 times a year.

[00:09:24] Another thing on the list, using options to be bigger in the above moments.

[00:09:29] So it's been huge for me.

[00:09:30] I've talked about it a little bit on here.

[00:09:31] But instead of trying the same futures trade four times, I do the options trade once or twice.

[00:09:35] And I lock my risk in.

[00:09:36] It's like, okay, I'm risking X.

[00:09:38] Let's go.

[00:09:39] I mean, that's my idea.

[00:09:40] And I bet my money and I'm in.

[00:09:42] And I can trade around the option.

[00:09:43] I can add more options.

[00:09:44] But I'm not getting wrecked and only to watch the trade actually work out later, which is so painful.

[00:09:53] Next one, this may or may not sound like voodoo to some people.

[00:09:58] Using gamma flips within a bigger framework that we already understand.

[00:10:03] So I'm typing this to Brent.

[00:10:04] So what that means is he's been looking a lot into dealer positioning for intraday options like zero expiration options.

[00:10:13] And knowing the overall positioning and when you get those big moves and it flips to negative gamma,

[00:10:17] they have to sell – they have to go with the trend basically and create exacerbated moves.

[00:10:22] So if that happens during the day on a big move, you know it's probably going to keep going a lot further through the next big technical cash level.

[00:10:30] So knowing that during the day, it can really help you navigate, oh, we're going to go further and I'm probably going to be able to sell the pullbacks pretty aggressively.

[00:10:36] And it's just an extra thing.

[00:10:37] And it might only work that way like – again, you might only get like five or ten days a year where that's a big thing.

[00:10:41] But those can be big days, especially with options, very big days if you understand that.

[00:10:47] So that's something that's newer.

[00:10:48] Not newer, the idea, but newer in terms of importance because of the options now are a bigger part of the everyday market than they used to be.

[00:10:57] Okay, let's go to what doesn't work.

[00:11:00] Trying to trade order flow and adding to winners all the time during the day.

[00:11:04] Used to be great.

[00:11:04] Doesn't work very well anymore.

[00:11:06] Machines, and we've talked about this, it's just not an effective strategy.

[00:11:09] Sometimes, okay, sure, but generally speaking, not a good strategy.

[00:11:13] Trying to think that you can make money every day by reading the market and drumming up activity, not a good strategy.

[00:11:20] Used to be, doesn't work anymore so well.

[00:11:22] Trading aggressive the next few days because you just had a big win in whatever you're doing or in the options.

[00:11:30] So I've noticed twofold.

[00:11:32] Number one, it usually means a shit day the next day if there was a good trend the day before, which is kind of that morning after a trend day, mean reversion behavior that I've talked about.

[00:11:42] Secondly, psychologically for you, the individual, you're very prone to give back money and be lax and be sloppy and be giddy and happy.

[00:11:49] Maybe subconsciously, even if you're not outwardly so, you're more apt to make mistakes when you just had a good win.

[00:11:55] You'll see it again and again happen.

[00:11:57] So that's an old warning.

[00:11:59] That's happened to me again.

[00:12:03] Using well-known public options data to guess strike prices and pins at the end of the day doesn't work very well.

[00:12:09] I mean, it sounds good, but I've not found success with that.

[00:12:12] Maybe somebody does.

[00:12:14] Most headlines are useless and cost you money, which we already know.

[00:12:18] But sometimes there's a huge headline that's not conventional wisdom and you'll get a gigantic move.

[00:12:23] So that's like less than 10%, but occasionally something happens that is real breaking news.

[00:12:29] But oftentimes, very smart people are preaching the same narrative and it sounds crafty and smart, but it's conventional wisdom.

[00:12:38] It's already in the market.

[00:12:39] And you've got to really be careful about that because it's the well-read people, you know, traders, macroeconomic especially, this happens.

[00:12:52] People with other, very smart people from other careers and fields reading all this stuff and getting information about something.

[00:12:59] Look at the glut and, you know, look at the, they're not putting any more oil rigs out and, you know, it has to go up and, you know, this is, excuse me, this is going to happen in Europe and all these things.

[00:13:10] It's like, just think about it for a second.

[00:13:12] There's five, 10 variables and the price action is horrible in energy right now.

[00:13:18] It's been better lately actually.

[00:13:20] And everyone knows these, these are all in the market.

[00:13:22] So a better way to play energy, I think, is to wait, let it start building good price action, build a base, start working, put in a failed low and then watch these same people who have been doing this for five years, who have been holding losers.

[00:13:38] They start getting out at their average price when it gets back up there.

[00:13:41] They start disbelieving when it actually starts working.

[00:13:44] It creates that collective neglect.

[00:13:46] And then your move comes and then you can jump in.

[00:13:48] I would way rather trade things that way than trying to outsmart all these people who are just, they're either way smarter than I am about it and they're going to have more information.

[00:13:58] But the information doesn't necessarily matter.

[00:13:59] It matters when it's going to move.

[00:14:03] And, excuse me, that's not to say that if you don't, if you're, if you have a narrative or a fundamental bias and you do a ton of deep research and you have a five-year time horizon, of course, that could be an edge and you could do really well.

[00:14:15] You don't care about if it goes 20% against you.

[00:14:17] There's no doubt that that's effective, but that's not trading.

[00:14:21] That's just being a fundamental investor.

[00:14:23] And I'm interested in that too.

[00:14:24] But I found that for me, and I do, I have like some of that, I definitely have that going on with some of my money.

[00:14:30] But for me, for like the trading business, the income business of producing money trading, it's, it's a tough way to live.

[00:14:37] It's better to be aware of things if you can do it without getting biased and then wait for them to start working, which means like, what does that mean?

[00:14:44] It's like, well, that's part of what I want to share more of is like, excuse me, is okay.

[00:14:51] You know, you have maybe a system, something blunt and simple even that you can rely on to trust price action.

[00:14:57] And you can even be like a moving average crossover system or whatever it is.

[00:15:00] It doesn't matter as much as it's just that you are starting to gauge the collective neglect, like tight, long bases and collective neglect with better price action.

[00:15:10] There's got to be some kind of a, you know, that's the closest thing to an effective system.

[00:15:15] But a lot of times there's just, you watch the bodies pile up.

[00:15:18] I used to, we used to talk about this when we were trading futures back in Chicago.

[00:15:21] It was like, everyone would get so killed in the morning because there's this, you could feel like the move coming.

[00:15:26] You could feel the energy and everyone gets to get shredded by like fake moves up and down the first 45 minutes.

[00:15:32] And then all of a sudden you'd see all the bodies pile up in the corner of the room and then the move happens.

[00:15:37] It was like, can you wait for that?

[00:15:38] Can you wait for the move to actually start happening?

[00:15:41] Or do you have to be smarter than everybody because you know that the rig count is dwindling drastically and it has to go up and yada, yada, yada.

[00:15:50] But no one ever makes a fortune on that stuff because everyone can see it.

[00:15:55] And think about the world we're moving into with like AI and eventually quantum computers.

[00:16:00] That's going to be like everything is known, all the data.

[00:16:03] Everyone has the data.

[00:16:04] So if everyone has the data and everyone knows, it's a game of like when is it going to work and where can I get in where if I'm wrong I don't get crushed.

[00:16:12] How do I learn how to join a great trend?

[00:16:16] Like this is working.

[00:16:17] How do I get in?

[00:16:18] How do I get in without getting killed?

[00:16:20] How do I get in and keep trading bigger over time so I can scale?

[00:16:22] Like those are the things that matter and even more than that, like how do I surround myself with a winning mindset or with people who find these ideas and know how to trade these ideas?

[00:16:32] And can I just pick one piece of that?

[00:16:34] And this is all the stuff that matters more than the rabbit holes.

[00:16:39] And I love rabbit holes too.

[00:16:41] I mean it's fun.

[00:16:42] And I like it more like if I can get way in front of things.

[00:16:45] Like I got in front of this quantum thing pretty good and I screwed it up and I didn't make any money on it.

[00:16:49] I started doubting myself because I got beat up psychologically and I got out of all of them and they went up like 20-fold some of them.

[00:16:55] It was just like oh my god.

[00:16:57] And I had to sit with that.

[00:16:58] And so finding that new stuff that's kind of going to be next because I knew I was kind of early on the crypto rally this time and I knew that like quantum was going to get tagged onto it.

[00:17:08] And there was like big long quiet bases and things like that.

[00:17:11] So that was kind of how I figured it out.

[00:17:12] I made baskets of all the quantum computing stocks and I could see the price action improving.

[00:17:17] It was like something's going on here.

[00:17:18] But you know I know there's no earnings.

[00:17:20] It's just going to be a story stock type thing.

[00:17:22] But anyways I screwed it up.

[00:17:24] But I did some things right by spotting it.

[00:17:26] And that's I can do that again.

[00:17:28] I can find stuff again.

[00:17:30] So move on to the next trade.

[00:17:31] Don't spend time looking back.

[00:17:33] Keep looking forward.

[00:17:34] But yeah so I think just setting yourself up for that kind of way of being versus the other thing where you're getting stuck.

[00:17:45] Like uranium was like that too.

[00:17:46] I caught some of the uranium in 2023 and I got out of it.

[00:17:50] Took a piece of it.

[00:17:51] And now it's just been a shit trade.

[00:17:53] Bleeding people out.

[00:17:55] And it's like oh you know it's going to be the future and we have to power all this AI.

[00:17:59] It's like yeah that's fine.

[00:18:01] No disagreements.

[00:18:01] But meanwhile bleed bleed bleed.

[00:18:04] How does that feel psychologically every day?

[00:18:06] Now if you're a long-term investor it's part of your inflation protection basket.

[00:18:10] You put a little money in there.

[00:18:11] Who cares?

[00:18:12] You don't care.

[00:18:12] You're looking at five years ten years.

[00:18:14] That's fine.

[00:18:15] Maybe the story works.

[00:18:16] Maybe it doesn't.

[00:18:16] I don't really know.

[00:18:17] But that's not really the game I'm playing on here.

[00:18:21] I could talk about more of that stuff because that's a different game.

[00:18:23] Like with some of my money I am buying and holding.

[00:18:25] And there's other parts of my money that I'm trading.

[00:18:29] But this is more about the trading business.

[00:18:31] So I think it's really important to separate those things out.

[00:18:35] And I've talked about this before but there's this since I've joined a lot of groups sometimes it's a pain.

[00:18:42] And I eventually quit them because I ultimately need to stick with what I'm really good at.

[00:18:46] But I've learned a lot through other people.

[00:18:47] I'm just dumbfounded by this.

[00:18:50] You've got this like macro energy commodity value crowd.

[00:18:57] And then you have this like AI robotic trend trading crowd.

[00:19:03] And it's like everyone's...

[00:19:04] It's like the Democrats, the Republicans or something.

[00:19:07] It's like don't we all want to just find stuff that's working and make money?

[00:19:11] I mean clearly the world's headed towards space travel, AI, robotics, quantum computing.

[00:19:15] Clearly that's the future.

[00:19:16] Everything else is noise, right?

[00:19:18] Energy is dwindling for a reason.

[00:19:20] It's going to pop again.

[00:19:21] It's going to get...

[00:19:22] We're going to overdo the sell-off.

[00:19:25] But the thing that I always keep thinking about is that none of my opinions on that matter at all.

[00:19:29] All that matters is what's the positioning and the fund flows that are going to cause the assets to move

[00:19:34] so we can make money trading and then go on with our life.

[00:19:36] And then we can invest in energy long term or whatever we want to do with it.

[00:19:40] So think about this.

[00:19:41] If everybody is already on boards telling you how cheap something is

[00:19:46] and everyone's bitching about it going down, they probably are already long.

[00:19:50] If someone's already long, the risk of you shorting a pop of it is very low.

[00:19:54] The risk of a big short squeeze is very low.

[00:19:57] A lot of times the best shorts on the way down are the Brazils and the oils and that stuff

[00:20:01] because everyone's long because it's like it's going to go some point, right?

[00:20:05] So you're aware of like big events that you can get hurt on, changes in government.

[00:20:09] But the positioning, you know the positioning.

[00:20:12] And this was like gold miners were like this for years.

[00:20:15] Not as much maybe right now.

[00:20:16] They're probably actually in a better position going forward now.

[00:20:18] But that is that you know the positioning.

[00:20:22] And when I know, and it's way harder for me to short something like quantum stocks.

[00:20:27] You can be like, they have no earnings.

[00:20:28] They're going to crash.

[00:20:29] Yeah, they probably will crash.

[00:20:30] Makes plenty of sense.

[00:20:31] But it's hard to short that stuff because you get massive squeezes

[00:20:34] because everyone knows there's no earnings and they're going to crash.

[00:20:37] So the squeezes are brutal.

[00:20:39] And the holding and the cost interest is tough.

[00:20:43] Meanwhile, you short these refiners on a pop into the 50-day moving average

[00:20:47] and you just get nothing but down, down, down, down.

[00:20:49] And your risk is low because everyone's already stuck holding.

[00:20:52] And that's being aware of the positioning.

[00:20:55] And I'm not saying that like we're smarter than the people who know those fundamentals are cheap

[00:21:00] and the stocks are going to be great five years from now.

[00:21:02] Warren Buffett's buying, you know, OXY.

[00:21:04] Yeah, sure.

[00:21:05] I'm not disagreeing with any of that.

[00:21:07] I just need to be aware of it so I can trade around it.

[00:21:09] You know what I mean?

[00:21:10] That's more important to me than...

[00:21:11] It just took me a long time to learn this too.

[00:21:13] It's just, it's crazy.

[00:21:14] But you're going to get so many people with these theses sounding smart.

[00:21:19] And they are smart people.

[00:21:20] But it doesn't, it really doesn't matter.

[00:21:22] It means nothing.

[00:21:24] And if you have like, maybe if you're at a hedge fund

[00:21:26] and you have cutting edge information and all that.

[00:21:28] But like, think about moving into a world where more and more information is structured

[00:21:34] from APIs and we can get it.

[00:21:36] How effective is your macro thesis really going to be?

[00:21:39] Like you want to argue with everybody about inflation is going to be 6%.

[00:21:43] Oh no, it's going to be 2%.

[00:21:44] Okay, great.

[00:21:45] Who cares?

[00:21:46] Right?

[00:21:47] I mean, like, let's find the stocks that are going to move each way.

[00:21:50] And let's watch the price action.

[00:21:51] And let's study past trends and learn how we trade things that are moving.

[00:21:55] And then once it happens, we can be like, oh, it's clear that this camp is building.

[00:22:01] And if I enter here, my risk is low and I can make a good trade out of this.

[00:22:05] And I can scale that whole idea.

[00:22:07] I can move up in a system like that.

[00:22:09] But it's hard when I'm like, got my cement boots on.

[00:22:11] All right, I'm in the camp.

[00:22:13] It's like, okay, well, you know, that's tougher to trade that way.

[00:22:18] And it's, but what I'm struggling with too is like,

[00:22:21] I have money that I'm moving around to do that stuff as well.

[00:22:25] So I think inflation is going to go higher.

[00:22:27] But so I have to be positioned for that, right?

[00:22:29] So I have to also take that stance somewhere.

[00:22:31] But in my trading, I cannot pollute my mind with that stuff in my trading too tight

[00:22:35] or else I'm biased based on some macro economic thing, which screws up my trading.

[00:22:43] So there's a place for that for sure.

[00:22:45] But you just got to know.

[00:22:46] That's why like the whole know your time frame, know your trade.

[00:22:49] Sometimes that's a different account with smaller size.

[00:22:52] Yeah, that's where you're holding.

[00:22:55] Excuse me, this cough every time the air hits my throat.

[00:22:58] God's sake.

[00:23:00] That's a different account.

[00:23:01] You know, that's a different place where you are acting differently and you know it

[00:23:05] and you're relaxed because you're like, okay, that's where my Bitcoin is.

[00:23:08] Or that's where my, maybe I had, there's Bitcoin trades that I'm hard and heavy.

[00:23:13] And for, you know, 10 to 50,000 points or whatever you're doing, 5,000 points.

[00:23:18] And then there's trades that are like, I'm in this forever because I like it.

[00:23:21] And I think it's a hedge against the government recklessness.

[00:23:23] Okay, that's a different trade, different account.

[00:23:25] You know what I mean?

[00:23:26] And I, and some of you like, well, you don't even care because you're newer and this is

[00:23:30] not what you're thinking about.

[00:23:31] That's totally understandable.

[00:23:32] Used to be where I was.

[00:23:34] But then now when I'm, when I'm playing both sides, I'm just sharing with you the things

[00:23:37] that go through my head about how do I handle, how do I handle that?

[00:23:41] Because it's hard as a trader, you, you see something go up a hundred percent.

[00:23:43] You want to get out.

[00:23:45] But as a long-term investor, as the world's changing, you have to ignore a lot of these

[00:23:50] voices and stick with it.

[00:23:53] Excuse me.

[00:23:54] Oh, I think I'm going to rescue you from my coughing now, but that's, that's it for today.